Rethinking Risk: A New Approach to Supply Chain Resilience

Global supply chains are under greater pressure than ever. From trade disputes and geopolitical conflict to environmental shocks and technological disruption, risks today no longer arrive one at a time. They collide, overlap and cascade across regions and industries. 

It is critical that organisations reframe their traditional views of resilience. Today it is no longer just about surviving, but about seizing advantage when crises arrive.  

Traditional risk management models, built on linear “disruption–response–recovery” thinking, are no longer enough. What businesses need is a framework that reflects the world as it truly is: complex, interconnected and constantly changing. 

Introducing the Polycrisis Framework

The Polycrisis framework provides exactly that. Rather than treating each disruption in isolation, it recognises that risks interact across multiple dimensions – geopolitical, economic, environmental, social and technological. 

It introduces a new way to view events: 

• Stresses are long-term pressures, like inflation, that may be manageable on their own. 

• Triggers are short, sharp shocks, such as a regulatory change or natural disaster. 

• When stresses and triggers combine, they can escalate into a crisis. 

This simple but powerful distinction helps organisations anticipate where vulnerabilities may arise, while also revealing where opportunities can be found. 

Moving Beyond the Downside of Risk

Historically, risk management has focused on protection – reducing losses and minimising damage. The Polycrisis framework shifts the lens. By looking at stresses and triggers together, organisations can see where disruption may also create advantage. 

Consider three recent examples: 

• Red Sea security crisis and Panama drought: Attacks on vessels in the Red Sea combined with drought-driven restrictions in the Panama Canal, created simultaneous chokepoint failures. Many firms faced soaring costs and weeks-long delays. Those with diversified routing strategies and adaptive logistics networks were able to act early, secure scarce slots, and even benefit from premium rates. 

• Semiconductor shortages during COVID-19: Temporary closures of chip plants in East Asia collided with structural stresses, including concentrated supply and just-in-time inventories. Carmakers shut production lines, but electronics and medical device producers that pivoted quickly captured diverted supply, strengthening their market positions. 

• Tariffs and trade disputes: Underlying geopolitical tensions triggered successive rounds of US tariffs. These measures severely disrupted retail and FMCG imports, driving volatility across consumer-facing supply chains. Yet while mainstream channels struggled, the redirection of flows created unexpected demand in government, defence, and aid logistics. Specialised logistics providers that adapted early to this new trade landscape were able to capture growth opportunities even as others absorbed the disruption. 

By reframing risk as a balance of both downside and upside, companies can turn disruption into a driver of innovation and resilience. 

Why It Matters for Supply Chains

One of the strengths of the Polycrisis framework is its accessibility. Far from being an overly complex academic exercise, it is designed to be simple, intuitive and adaptable across industries. Its benefits include: 

• Cross-functional engagement: By framing risks across social, economic, technological and environmental dimensions, the model brings together functions that might not traditionally engage in risk discussions, from HR and finance to IT and operations. 

• Regional and operational relevance: Because risks manifest differently depending on geography and business model, the framework can be tailored to regional contexts and supply chain pinch points. 

• Improved foresight: By monitoring stresses over time, organisations are better positioned to anticipate where a trigger event may tip conditions into crisis. This can enable earlier interventions and more agile responses. 

• Opportunity recognition: Importantly, it shifts thinking towards how organisations might benefit from disruption, whether through new products, services or operational models. 

Embedding the Approach

The Polycrisis framework does not replace existing contingency plans. A fire in a warehouse, for example, still needs to be extinguished. But by layering this perspective on top of existing tools, organisations can go further. They can explore knock-on effects, anticipate changes in customer behaviour, and position themselves more strongly for what comes next. 

Embedding the approach is about changing culture and the language used as much as process. It means treating risk as a relationship with the external environment, not just a list of threats. It means involving voices from across the organisation, not just the executive team. And it means seeing disruption as a catalyst for rethinking, reinventing and improving. 

Turning Risk into Advantage

In today’s volatile world, supply chains cannot be managed with yesterday’s playbooks. The Polycrisis framework equips organisations with a way to think more broadly, respond more intelligently and seize opportunities hidden within disruption. 

For companies ready to take a fresh look at resilience, this approach offers a clear and practical way forward. Risk will never disappear – but with the right mindset and tools, it can become a source of strength. 

To find out more about the Polycrisis framework and how it is applied in practice visit – the signal house 

You can contact the creators of this framework, Omera Khan or Nick Bailey, by clicking here – Meet the Team